LEDGER

Kevin Bass tip — verified edges only

Kevin Bass tip — verified edges only

Kevin Bass’s thread argues that METR’s funders overlap Anthropic equity holders, that a ~$71M raise landed beside evaluator-seat talk, that Tarbell journalism sits on Coefficient/OP money, and that Redwood/Coefficient ties (including Barnes–Greenblatt) close an incentive loop through Moskovitz philanthropy. Useful lead list. We re-checked the edges against live primaries. Unverified Bass dollars and “on the payroll” stamps do not become ours.

Rules that already govern this pack: a tip is a lead, not a receipt · $7.7B is ceiling math, not a stamped Good Ventures Anthropic holding · Tarbell’s Coefficient/OP class is $4.7M, not $5.3M · Redwood’s METR subcontract on the public record is the OpenAI / Hugging Face probe — not Anthropic · “money anticipated the seat” stays inference, not fact. The published DSC editorial is untouched by this tip.

Companion: In this report: BLUF · Research map · Report assets · Amplification scoreboard · Money graph · Thesis audit · Essay figures · Rooke tip — verified only · Bass tip — verified only · Evidence & sources

Edges that hold

Moskovitz / Anthropic stake → philanthropy

Edge Score What we publish Primary
Early-2025 donated Anthropic stake into a nonprofit; Forbes ~$500M / True Net Worth <0.8% CONFIRMED donation + estimate band; vehicle unnamed Forbes AU · Forbes True Net Worth 2026-04-20
Ceiling math 0.8% × $965B Series H ≈ $7.7B PARTIAL ceiling only — never as stamped book value Anthropic Series H
Moskovitz: “We fund … METR and Redwood”; Good Ventures “beneficiary … via Anthropic” CONFIRMED (words) quotes + grant-path hedge Bluesky 2026-09-11 · Bluesky 2026-08-26
Cash path OP/GV → ARC → METR; Coefficient/OP → Redwood PARTIAL (loop) cite the money graph — not direct OP→METR; not payroll same

Investor dual-hat / donor-ban silence

Edge Score What we publish Primary
METR refuses frontier labs + employees (and donations at their direction); does not name lab investors as barred donors CONFIRMED policy text as written metr.org/about · Funding update 2026-08-14 · coi-policy.pdf
Tallinn / SFF → METR/ARC path and Anthropic Series A lead CONFIRMED dual path; “observer” only on secondary sources Anthropic Series A · SFF recommendations
Schmidt Sciences → METR and Eric Schmidt on Series A CONFIRMED person vs vehicle split metr.org/about · Anthropic Series A
Jane Street individuals → METR; Jane Street firm → Anthropic equity PARTIAL both edges true; not the same legal person metr.org/about · Anthropic Series E · Series F
McClave / BEMC Anthropic investor CONFIRMED equity; no METR grant found on public 990s checked equity yes; METR donor no — Bass already softens this row Anthropic Series A/B · CNN 2024-03-10

METR’s ~$71M calendar

Edge Score What we publish Primary
METR ~$71M commitments in prior 6 months, announced 2026-08-14 CONFIRMED $71M + window Funding update
Calendar overlap with independent-evaluator / FINRA-for-AI drafting CONFIRMED (overlap) timing only Funding update window vs policy primaries in the Bass timeline (OpenAI Frontier Safety Blueprint, Anthropic AI Exponential policy, Hassabis framework, Bloomberg FINRA-like watchdog, H.R.9925, Lawfare FINRA-for-AI)
OpenAI HF investigation agreed ~Jul 29–30; Anthropic METR agreement Sep 9 (end/after raise) CONFIRMED sequence METR HF report · Anthropic alignment assessment
Money anticipated a mandated evaluator seat UNSUPPORTED as proven omit as fact — Bass’s own hedge stands same chronology
7× 2024 budget PARTIAL omit until a public budget primary exists —

FINRA-for-AI docs that name METR

Edge Score What we publish Primary
Sample Apr–Sep 2026 docs: Amodei / Sacks / Lawfare-class name METR; most institutional drafts silent PARTIAL directional pattern; not a hard “exactly 4 of 22” stamp without one still-unverified named cell Amodei / Sacks / Lawfare sample vs institutional silence
Amodei Pace the Frontier names METR + permanent embeds CONFIRMED already scored on the amplification scoreboard darioamodei.com

Tarbell media pipe

Edge Score What we publish Primary
Coefficient/OP-adjacent awards tied to Tarbell = $4,703,000 (3 archive rows) CONFIRMED $4.7M — not Bass’s ~$5.3M Coefficient Giving Grants Archive CSV (Training for Good $999k + Tarbell $816k + Tarbell $2,888k)
SFF → Tarbell ~$1.3M incl. $200k‡ CONFIRMED recommended cash + ‡ face kept separate SFF recommendations · Rooke tip
Fellows place AI pieces at TIME / Verge / Dispatch / LAT / Science CONFIRMED placements tarbellcenter.org
Consistent in-story funding disclosure PARTIAL author-bio common; in-article uneven same

Redwood / Coefficient / Barnes–Greenblatt

Edge Score What we publish Primary
Redwood board eras include Karnofsky / Cotra / Christiano lines CONFIRMED roles Form 990 EIN 87-1702255 (ProPublica Nonprofit Explorer)
Coefficient >$70M over two years recommendation to Redwood (Sep 2026) CONFIRMED >$70M recommendation Coefficient: urgently scaling
Redwood staff contracted to METR on the OpenAI / Hugging Face investigation (Ryan Greenblatt) CONFIRMED OpenAI/HF only METR HF investigation
Same fact sold as “Redwood subcontracted on the Anthropic investigation” MISATTRIBUTED omit the Anthropic-subcontract frame Anthropic’s Sep 9 alignment assessment names METR only
Greenblatt = domestic partner of Beth Barnes (METR CEO); Barnes recused from the engagement decision CONFIRMED disclosure footnote METR HF report, footnote 2

Composite — incentive loop (setup only)

Once the rows above hold, the setup reads cleanly. The invoice does not.

Claim Score How we cite
Equity → philanthropy → evaluator/grantee incentive loop (Moskovitz/Tallinn neighborhood + METR donor-ban silence + $71M timing + Redwood dual-hat) CONFIRMED as Layer A motive-shape This page + the cartel / pacing row on the scoreboard
METR is “on Anthropic’s payroll” / literal capture invoice UNSUPPORTED omit
Network “cannot turn off doom cycle without killing funding” PARTIAL motive-shape hedge as hypothesis, not mechanism proof
Coxon weekend = product of that machine adjacency only do not reopen a Coxon payroll claim; cite the activation rows on the scoreboard

(Layer A / Layer B = setup vs stamp — same split as the rest of this pack.)

What we are not claiming

  • Bass ~$5.3M Tarbell Coefficient class (primary archive = $4.7M)
  • $7.7B as a current Good Ventures / foundation Anthropic holding (ceiling math only)
  • “METR on Anthropic payroll” / bought evals
  • Redwood subcontract on the Anthropic investigation (OpenAI/HF is the primary)
  • Seat-anticipation / regulatory-capture financing as the proven cause of the $71M raise
  • A hard “exactly 4 of 22” FINRA-doc count without the missing primary cell
  • Any rewrite of the published DSC editorial from this tip alone

Credit

Thread tip: Kevin Bass (@kevinnbass) — status/2099621874279817638. Checked against primaries 2026-09-14–15.

Sources (live + mirrored)

What Live Receipt
METR ~$71M update funding update HTML
METR about + COI about · coi-policy.pdf about HTML · PDF · txt
OpenAI / HF investigation metr.org HTML
Coefficient archive → Tarbell $4.7M CSV full CSV · Tarbell slice
Coefficient >$70M Redwood urgently scaling HTML
Anthropic Series A / Series H Series A · Series H A HTML · H HTML
Amodei Pace the Frontier darioamodei.com HTML
Anthropic Sep 9 METR agreement alignment assessment HTML
Bass tip figures thread tips/

Full drawer: Evidence & sources

Contact