They Have to Create the Beast First — research map
Public pack · Decision Science Corp · Canonical on Ledger · Updated 2026-09-15
This page: research map for the report.
BLUF: standalone BLUF page · Editorial: DSC blog
Stuck on an acronym? Jump to the Appendix — terminology at the bottom.
Start here (read in this order)
| # |
What you’re getting |
Link |
| 1 |
BLUF |
BLUF |
| 2 |
This map |
Research map |
| 3 |
Positive assets only — charts and tables that survived audit |
Report assets |
| 4 |
Amplification scoreboard — Jurvetson, Thayer, Coxon, Roemmele, weekend, cartel motive |
Scoreboard |
| 5 |
Money graph — Tallinn / SFF / METR / Lightcone / PDKU / Coxon scholarship |
Money graph |
| 6 |
Thesis audit — rigor pass that produced the assets doc |
Thesis audit |
Don’t start in the receipt crumbs unless you’re checking a specific dollar or status ID. The scoreboard and the assets doc are the product; the rest is the receipt drawer.
How to read the scores (non-negotiable)
We split every claim into two layers. Collapsing them is how you either overclaim or soft-pedal.
| Layer |
Meaning |
Example |
| A — Setup / trajectory |
The apparatus is real: money, personnel, timing, playbooks |
SFF→Encode/Futures/AIPI cash; first-wave QTs; METR as the meter labs and governments lean on |
| B — Final formality |
Statute, paid psyop invoice, raw geo CSV we reproduced ourselves |
METR written into law as the license gate; boost invoice; independent DigitalBorders repro |
Missing B does not erase A. “Not a statutory regulator yet” is not the same sentence as “there’s no choke-point.”
What we built (this lane only)
| Slice |
What it answered |
Where to read |
| Money graph |
Who pays whom inside the Tallinn/SFF–METR–Lightcone trunk; Coxon’s GV scholarship |
Money graph |
| Amplification scoreboard |
Jurvetson geo charts, Thayer’s PR-op claim, Coxon money, Roemmele/METR gate, weekend timeline, frontier cartel motive |
Amplification scoreboard |
| Thesis audit |
Exact dollars, personnel ≤ source, misID scrub, tenuous trails → positive assets only |
Thesis audit · Report assets |
| Receipts |
PDF primary for Coxon $, QT timestamps, SFF ‡ drawdowns |
SFF matching · GV 990-PF — Coxon · First-wave QTs · WSJ Δt · Wildeford QT · Samuel Marks · Lightcone ‡ face |
Evidence topics (behind the pack pages)
Public readers stay on this map and the linked pack pages. Each row is a topic we scored — not an internal dig ID.
Locked timeline anchors (Coxon T0)
Coxon root: @hilbertspaess · 2097476196791709843 · 2026-09-09 00:04:29 UTC
| Beat |
Status ID |
Lag vs T0 |
WSJ datePublished |
— |
−18m 29s (2026-09-08 23:46:00Z) — do not use later edit stamps |
| Wildeford WSJ paste (pre-root) |
2097475721170206729 |
−1.89m |
| Nathan Calvin QT |
2097477731818537273 |
+6.1m |
Peter Wildeford QT (👀) |
2097477780896378946 |
+6.29m |
| Daniel Kokotajlo QT |
2097478689558806951 |
+9.91m |
| Chris Nadeau (Coefficient) QT |
2097483040390057995 |
+27.19m (“14th” ordinal still alleged) |
| Evan Hubinger (personal) |
2097497037956891126 |
+82.8m |
Samuel Marks @saprmarks (personal capacity) |
2097570226804011302 |
+6h14m — ≠ Luke Samuel Marks (Tallinn LSG) |
Thayer’s “first three within ~15 minutes” — Calvin / Wildeford / Kokotajlo — is now 3/3 on primary IDs.
Receipt drawer (primary sources)
| Page |
What it locks |
| GV 990-PF — Coxon |
Good Ventures EIN 46-1008520 990-PF Part XV p.12 — Jacob Coxon $20,159 (2022 scholarship). Nathan Calvin $114,050 same filing. Purpose ≠ EA Funds LTFF. |
| First-wave QTs |
First-wave QT timestamp table |
| WSJ Δt |
WSJ publish → Coxon = 18m 29s |
| Wildeford QT |
Wildeford root QT confirmed (Wayback CDX → fxtwitter; GraphQL alone missed it) |
| Samuel Marks |
Marks personal-capacity QT +6h14m |
| SFF matching |
SFF ‡ pledges — WIRED / OPEN / NOT DRAWN |
| Lightcone ‡ face |
Lightcone report $650k‡; Matching-table $500k conflict footnoted |
| Geo repro method |
Standing method to reproduce third-party geo charts before we cite them as ours |
Exact-dollar highlights (don’t sum cash + ‡):
| Flow |
Amount |
Class |
| GV → Coxon |
$20,159 (2022) |
990-PF PDF |
| SFF → Encode AI Corp |
$516,000 (2025) |
SFF table |
| SFF → AI Futures |
$1,535,000 + $500,000‡ |
‡ NOT DRAWN |
| SFF → AIPI (via Hack) |
$1,635,000 (2025) |
SFF table — not AIPN |
| SFF → Lightcone |
$661k + $650k‡ |
‡ WIRED (face $650k) |
| OP/GV → ARC → METR |
$1,515,000 then spin-off $4,477,169 |
No OP→METR direct cash |
Still open (honest residual list)
| Item |
Status |
| Independent DigitalBorders Coxon/Thayer geo repro + raw sample |
Deferred — charts exist; our own rows don’t yet (Geo repro method) |
| METR $428k‡ matching |
Open until 2026-09-30 |
| Tallinn ledger refresh post-2025-03 |
Needed for Futures ‡ / late wires |
| Nadeau “14th QT” ordinal |
Timing confirmed; ordinal alleged |
| AIPN separate lobby/c4 map |
OPS_GAP — personnel adjacency ≠ SFF payee name |
Org-account first-wave QTs (AIPN/AIPI/Encode/@AI_Futures_) |
Thin vs personal accounts |
| Roommate / Muehlhauser “past board” (Multiplex) |
Alleged — don’t assert as fact |
| PDKU ~$800k budget claim |
HOLD |
Closed claims — don’t put these back in the draft
- Tallinn as Anthropic board member / director (investor / Series A lead only)
- Open Phil → METR direct cash (path is OP→ARC→METR)
- This weekend as a bought resignation / paid-boost invoice
- AIPI = AIPN name collapse
- Encode AI Corp = Encode Justice
- Samuel Marks = Luke Samuel Marks
- GV “Long-term Future Scholarship” = EA Funds LTFF
- A thick foreign-influence paymaster into this EA trunk (see BLUF — slim at best)
Name collisions that will wreck a draft if you miss them
| Wrong collapse |
Right split |
| AIPN ↔ AIPI |
Wildeford/Colson AIPN actor lane; SFF dollars → AIPI (Hack Foundation) |
| Marks |
Anthropic @saprmarks ≠ Tallinn LSG Luke Samuel Marks |
| Encode |
Encode AI Corp (SFF) ≠ Encode Justice |
| Vanguard |
Tallinn AISTOF path ≠ Vanguard→METR $4M advisee conduit |
Full public pack
- Research map
- Report assets
- Amplification scoreboard
- Money graph
- Thesis audit
- Geo reproduction method
- SFF ‡ matching
- GV 990-PF Coxon
- First-wave QTs
- WSJ Δt
- Wildeford QT
- Samuel Marks
- Lightcone ‡ face
Every linked page keeps its receipts; if a word isn’t defined where it first shows up, it lives in the terminology appendix below.
Appendix — terminology (read this last, use it first when stuck)
People
| Name |
Who they are in this pack |
Jacob Coxon (@hilbertspaess) |
Anthropic employee who resigned in public Sep 8–9 2026 UTC; center of the weekend story |
| Jaan Tallinn |
Skype/Kazaa co-founder; major Anthropic investor (Series A lead) and primary funder behind SFF |
| Parker Thayer |
Commentator who called Coxon’s resignation the start of a sophisticated PR op for AI regulation |
| Steve Jurvetson |
Investor who posted DigitalBorders-branded charts claiming high % foreign amplification of Coxon/Thayer posts |
Peter Wildeford (@peterwildeford) |
AI Policy Network figure; early Coxon quote-tweet (👀) |
| Nathan Calvin |
Early Coxon QT; also appears on same Good Ventures scholarship page as Coxon |
| Daniel Kokotajlo |
Early Coxon QT; AI Futures / forecasting neighborhood |
| Max Nadeau |
Coefficient Giving TAIS program officer; Coxon QT ~+27m |
| Evan Hubinger |
Anthropic alignment researcher; personal X amplify ~83m after Coxon (not an “official Anthropic reply”) |
Samuel Marks (@saprmarks) |
Anthropic scalable-oversight lead; personal-capacity Coxon QT ~+6h — not Luke Samuel Marks |
| Luke Samuel Marks |
Different person; Tallinn/LSG grantee neighborhood — do not merge with @saprmarks |
| Dario Amodei |
Anthropic CEO; We Must Pace the Frontier — names METR; unilateral permanent employee-level evaluator commit (2026-09-12) |
| Sam Altman |
OpenAI CEO; publicly echoed “pace the frontier” |
| Elon Musk |
xAI; attacked Coxon-as-messenger and said “Dario is right” on pacing |
| Brian Roemmele |
X commentator amplifying Multiplex’s METR-as-gatekeeper framing |
| Oliver Habryka |
Lightcone / LessWrong orbit; fundraiser thermometer for Lightcone matching |
| Aella / Ronny Fernandez |
Plz Don’t Kill Us creators; Ronny on Lightcone payroll |
| Ajeya Cotra / Paul Christiano |
Married; Cotra at METR; Christiano ARC/NIST path |
| Holden Karnofsky / Daniela Amodei |
Married; Karnofsky left Open Phil / Coefficient path into Anthropic staff |
Organizations & money pipes
| Term |
Plain meaning |
| EA |
Effective Altruism — the philanthropy / career / risk community around long-term AI risk (among other causes) |
| SFF |
Survival & Flourishing Fund — Tallinn-backed recommender that publishes who gets how much |
| Lightcone |
Lightcone Infrastructure — runs LessWrong/Lighthaven-adjacent ops; EIN 92-0861538 |
| MIRI |
Machine Intelligence Research Institute — Yudkowsky shop; Tallinn/SFF grantee |
| METR |
Model Evaluation & Threat Research (was ARC Evals) — independent eval org Amodei cites as embedded-evaluator example |
| ARC |
Alignment Research Center — older org; large spin-off dollars into METR |
| Open Phil / OP |
Open Philanthropy — big EA grantmaker; now overlapping Coefficient Giving branding |
| Coefficient Giving |
Successor/adjacent brand to Open Phil in this graph; employs Nadeau |
| Good Ventures / GV |
Moskovitz/Tuna foundation; EIN 46-1008520; paid Coxon’s scholarship |
| AIPI |
AI Policy Institute (via Hack Foundation on SFF tables) — SFF payee name |
| AIPN |
AI Policy Network — Wildeford’s org lane; not the SFF payee string |
| Encode AI Corp |
SFF-2025 grantee ($516k) — not “Encode Justice” |
| AI Futures |
Advocacy/forecasting org; large SFF cash + a matching pledge that looks not drawn |
| PDKU |
Plz Don’t Kill Us — Aella/Ronny creator program; no clean standalone EIN found |
| Frame Fellowship |
Short fellowship with published stipend (~$10k / 10 weeks) |
| Hack Foundation |
Fiscal host listed on SFF for AIPI dollars |
| DigitalBorders |
Digital Borders Initiative — publishes engager-origin / geo charts (often via Jurvetson’s posts) |
| Lighthaven |
Campus/housing in the Lightcone orbit (Rose Garden LLC mortgage history) |
| DAF |
Donor-advised fund — charitable “checking account”; underlying donor often sealed |
| EIN |
IRS Employer Identification Number — the org’s tax ID on Form 990 |
| 990 / 990-PF |
Public US nonprofit tax return (PF = private foundation). Part XV lists grants paid |
| Schedule I / Sch B |
990 schedules — grants out (I) / big donors in (B; often sealed) |
Claims language (how we score)
| Term |
Plain meaning |
| Layer A |
Setup / trajectory — the machine being built (money, timing, embeds). Score this first |
| Layer B |
Final stamp — statute, paid invoice, raw CSV we reproduced ourselves. Score second |
| CONFIRMED |
Primary evidence holds for the claim as stated |
| PARTIAL |
Real signal; incomplete or overclaimed in some direction |
| HIT |
Money or personnel fact locked to a primary |
| DEBUNKED |
Specific false claim knocked down |
| UNSUPPORTED |
Not shown on primaries we have |
| NOT ESTABLISHED |
Plausible story; no invoice/direction proof |
| NOT YET |
Trajectory real; formality hasn’t landed |
| OPS_GAP |
We couldn’t finish the receipt climb (egress, delete, sealed form) — not the same as “false” |
| HOLD |
Exact figure locked pending only routine refresh |
| WIRED |
Matching pledge money appears actually raised/paid (still mark ‡ separately from standard cash) |
| NOT DRAWN |
Matching window passed with no public evidence the match was collected |
| OPEN (‡) |
Matching deadline still ahead |
Mechanics & shorthand
| Term |
Plain meaning |
| QT |
Quote-tweet — X post that embeds someone else’s post |
| T0 |
Time zero — Coxon’s resignation post clock (2026-09-09 00:04:29 UTC) |
| Snowflake ID |
The long numeric X status ID; encodes create-time |
| ‡ / matching pledge |
Conditional “we’ll match donations” money on SFF tables — not the same as the standard cash grant. Never add ‡ to cash |
| First wave |
Amplifiers inside ~15–30 minutes of T0 |
| RSP |
Responsible Scaling Policy — lab pledges that lean on eval meters |
| Embedded evaluator |
Outside org with deep model access measuring dangerous capability |
| Fiscal sponsor |
501(c) that hosts projects so they don’t need their own EIN yet |
| Series A lead |
Lead investor in an early equity round — not a board seat by itself |
| Paymaster |
Shared funding source tying two political/advocacy aisles on paper |
| Grok |
xAI’s model; Thayer attributed his “first three QTs” list to it |
| Candid / ProPublica |
Public 990 mirrors; we used Candid PDF for Coxon’s GV line |
| fxtwitter / Wayback CDX |
Tools to recover tweet text/IDs when live X search lies |
One sentence on “foreign influence”
We checked whether this EA trunk shared a paymaster with the foreign-influence / letter-aisle work we’d already been doing. Overlap looks slim at best. This pack does not re-litigate that map.