EA money graph — who pays whom (and how Coxon sits on the aisle)
What this is: the filing-level money map behind the Coxon weekend story — Tallinn / SFF / Lightcone / MIRI / METR, plus the creator lane (Plz Don’t Kill Us). Receipts stay below. Don’t skim past the BLUF and then invent edges that aren’t in the tables.
Companion reads: research map + glossary · assets · amplification scoreboard
Terms you’ll hit immediately
| Term | Meaning |
|---|---|
| SFF | Survival & Flourishing Fund — publishes recommended grant amounts |
| METR | Model Evaluation & Threat Research (ex–ARC Evals) |
| ARC | Alignment Research Center — large spin-off dollars into METR |
| Lightcone | Infrastructure nonprofit (LessWrong/Lighthaven orbit); Ronny Fernandez employer |
| PDKU | Plz Don’t Kill Us — Aella + Ronny creator program |
| ‡ | Matching pledge on SFF tables — not standard cash; never sum with cash |
| DAF | Donor-advised fund — donor often sealed |
| EIN / 990 | IRS org ID / nonprofit tax return |
| AIPI | AI Policy Institute (SFF payee via Hack) — ≠ AIPN |
| slim foreign-influence overlap | We checked for a shared paymaster with the broader foreign-influence map; slim at best |
Name lock: Aella (not Ella). Samuel Marks (@saprmarks) ≠ Luke Samuel Marks.
Investigation brief — EA doomer pipeline × METR × Anthropic weekend (Sep 2026)
Money-graph exact-dollar audit: OP→METR Mermaid edge corrected to OP→ARC→METR; SFF advocacy payee is AIPI not AIPN. Exact $ table: Thesis audit.
Status: open investigation · cross-aisle and Euro-climate digs filed 2026-09-14 · money graph maintained · watch left: METR FY2025 990 (recheck from ~2026-11-17)
Related editorial: DSC editorial
Name lock: Aella (not Ella) + Grimes
Live dig queue
Private trail cards stay on the internal board. This page keeps the money map and verdicts.
Status note (2026-09-14 night): Cross-aisle and Euro-climate digs + Every.org execute closed. Still watching: METR FY2025 990 (recheck from ~2026-11-17).
Dig log — 2026-09-14 afternoon (board + Cause IQ pass)
New Layer-1 money facts
| Fact | Detail | Strength |
|---|---|---|
| Lightcone FY2025 revenue | $9.74M (was ~$1.58M FY2024) — Cause IQ | Direct (aggregator) |
| Lightcone = fiscal sponsor | Cause IQ characteristic flag | Direct (aggregator) |
| Ronny Fernandez payroll | Lightcone Campus Generalist $157,750 | Direct |
| SVCF → Lightcone | $590,000 (2024-12, Education) | Direct |
| SVCF → MIRI | $50,000 (2024-12, Sciences) | Direct |
| DAFgiving360 → Lightcone | $263,100 | Direct |
| Every Org → Lightcone | $233,483 | Direct |
| Good Ventures → MIRI | $195,000 (Cause IQ history note) | Direct |
| Lightcone Commons pool | Tallinn $10M conditional + Moskovitz/Coefficient ~$5M first round + anon/LTFF/ARM | Direct (Commons site) |
| PDKU 2027 gate | Waiting on Lightcone Commons recommendations (~Oct 23 2026) | Direct (PDKU site) |
| METR $71M | Confirmed blog; no per-funder amounts published | Direct |
| METR 990 PDF | ProPublica download = Security Check (blocked this pass even via FlareSolverr) | Ops gap |
Cross-aisle flag
SVCF now sits on both Lightcone and MIRI grantmaker tables — same community-foundation DAF family already tracked on the foreign-influence letter aisle.
New cards this pass
| Task | Trail |
|---|
BLUF
Three public threads rhyme with the editorial’s “doomerism is the mask / create the beast” thesis:
- Paid creator doomerism — Plz Don’t Kill Us (Aella + Ronny Fernandez / Lightcone) + Frame Fellowship.
- Anthropic → METR — Benton leaves Anthropic for METR; Amodei names METR as embedded-evaluator example.
- Same-weekend resignation theater — Coxon et al. amplify moral emergency while Amodei asks for out-of-band remedies.
Money graph (after the early money digs): The nonprofit filings make the church easy to see. Jaan Tallinn / Survival & Flourishing Fund is the confirmed common trunk: multi-year grants into Lightcone Infrastructure (Ronny Fernandez employer; Lighthaven campus), MIRI (named PDKU funder + Yudkowsky shop), and METR (Amodei’s named embedded evaluator). Historical Tallinn → Beri Support Fund → MIRI $600k (BSF closed YE2021; SFF succeeded). SVCF → Lightcone $590k + MIRI $50k unmasked as Tallinn/SFF, not a Singham-flavored DAF.
PDKU host (corrected): No standalone EIN (ProPublica 0; Every.org PDKU slugs 404 / search empty). Lightcone is a fiscal sponsor org-level, but PDKU is not on Habryka’s sponsored-project list and has no Every.org project designation. Best model: unincorporated / grant-funded creator program (MIRI ± SFF per press) + rent-free Lighthaven (Rose Garden LLC 88-4056757; Slimrock/Tallinn $20M mortgage) + Ronny on Lightcone payroll. 2027 gate = Lightcone Commons (~2026-10-23 recs).
METR paycheck: ~$13.6M TY2024 cash; ARC spin-off ~$4.48M; Vanguard Charitable $4M = PIPE-ONLY (advisee sealed — CA post-Bonta drops Sch B; IRS RESTRICTED). OP/Coefficient → METR named grant = NO_HIT; path is OP→ARC $1.515M then ARC→METR. ~$71M Aug 2026 commitments = PARTIAL (soft; cannot itemize). Free lab tokens = HIT (cash independence ≠ free compute).
Cross-aisle (EA ↔ Singham/CodePink / foreign-influence letter aisle): After the cross-aisle digs — no shared paymaster. Euro climate philanthropy → EA: Oak/QCF/CIFF/ClimateWorks/KR/IKEA/Wellcome/Arcadia/personnel = NO_HIT; Packard/Pew = PARTIAL letter adjacency + AMOUNT_GAP on METR thank-you amounts — not a paper Oak→METR bridge. Soft China-via-Euro stays Layer 3. Confuse-not: Effektiv Spenden/Longview/FP = EA-Europe, not climate FFM.
Still open: METR FY2025 990 watch; unnamed DAF advisees (Vanguard $4M / Schwab $263k / Fidelity $188k — Emerson/Yield/FOIA exhausted). Euro climate→EA primary dig closed.
Money graph v1 — who pays whom
Hub: Tallinn → SFF → the three nodes that matter
SFF publishes recommendations. Funder on the big lines is almost always Jaan Tallinn. Selected recent rows (from SFF recommendations):
| Round | Recipient (payee) | Amount (Tallinn unless noted) | Relevance |
|---|---|---|---|
| SFF-2025 | Lightcone Infrastructure, Inc. | $661,000 + $650,000 match | PDKU cofounder employer; Lighthaven campus |
| SFF-2025 | MIRI | $1,607,000 match-flagged | Named PDKU funder; Yudkowsky |
| SFF-2025 | METR, Inc. | $120,000 + $428,000 match | Amodei’s named evaluator |
| SFF-2025 | CAIS / CAIS Action Fund | $289k / $772k | Frame amplifier / post-program contracts |
| SFF-2025 | AI Lab Watch via Lightcone | $371,000 | Lab-watch narrative adjacent |
| SFF-2024 | Lightcone Infrastructure Inc. | $513,500 | Same trunk |
| SFF-2024 | METR, Inc. | $204,000 | Same trunk |
| SFF-2024 | CAIS / CAIS AF | $1,146,000 / $1,621,000 | Same trunk |
| Initiative Committee 2024 | Lightcone (via CFAR payee) | $1,720,000 + $200,000 | Historical Lightcone scale |
| SFF-2024 | Manifund (Manifold for Charity) | $90,000 | Frame advisor Austin Chen’s platform |
| SFF-2024 | Tarbell Fellowship (Players Philanthropy Fund) | $520,000 | Adjacent journalism fellowship money — same donor, different medium |
Historical pipe: Tallinn → Beri Support Fund → MIRI $600k
| Edge | Detail | Strength |
|---|---|---|
| Tallinn → Beri Support Fund EIN 82-4039090 → MIRI $600k | Tallinn ledger via=BSF (2019-02-26); BSF FY2019 Sch I |
HIT |
| BSF legal form | 509(a)(3) Type I supporting org of BERI 81-4820272; Critch chair; closed YE2021 | HIT |
| Open Phil → BSF | — | NO_HIT |
| Confuse-not | BERI’s own ~$300k→MIRI ≠ BSF $600k; SFF = post-2019 Tallinn regrant successor | HIT |
Read: Tallinn does not need a line-item titled “Plz Don’t Kill Us” for the graph to close. He funds the employer (Lightcone), the named PDKU sponsor (MIRI), and the evaluator (METR) in the same SFF rounds.
Plz Don’t Kill Us — funding status
| Claim | Strength | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Funded by MIRI + SFF; ~$800k goal, ~60% at Apr 2026 launch | Direct (founder interview) | SF Standard |
| Site: “funding from MIRI and others”; waiting on Lightcone Commons for 2027 | Direct | plzdontkillus.com |
| Transformer: “partially funded by MIRI” | Direct | Transformer News |
| Exact MIRI $ / SFF recommendation line naming PDKU | Gap — not found as its own SFF applicant name; likely MIRI program spend and/or Lightcone campus support | 990 Schedule I dig still needed |
| Legal entity / EIN for "Plz Don't Kill Us" as standalone 501(c)(3) | NO_HIT — no standalone EIN; Lightcone fiscal sponsor is org-level only; PDKU not named on Habryka/Part III sponsored-project list → host under 92-0861538 = PARTIAL only | ProPublica; Habryka fiscal list; dig 04-pdku-host |
Lightcone Infrastructure Inc. — Berkeley 501(c)(3), EIN 92-0861538, tax-exempt Oct 2023. Team page lists Ronny Fernandez (Cause IQ: Campus Generalist $157,750). Cause IQ flags Lightcone as a fiscal sponsor (org-level HIT); PDKU is not on the named sponsored-project list (PARTIAL host claim only). FY2024 revenue ~$1.58M; FY2025 ~$9.74M. Named grantmakers include SVCF $590k, DAFgiving360 $263k, Every Org $233k. Full PDF Schedule I still blocked behind ProPublica Security Check this pass. Address: 2740 Telegraph Ave / Lighthaven cluster.
Frame Fellowship — funding status
| Claim | Strength | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Previous lead funder = AI Safety Tactical Opportunities Fund (AISTOF) | Direct (Frame FAQ quoted by reporters) | David Gerard / Frame FAQ paste |
| AISTOF = pooled multi-donor fund, founder JueYan Zhang (ex-BlackRock); >$30M raised, 150+ grants since 2023 | Direct | Manifund AIS funder bulletin, Zhang LinkedIn |
| AISTOF LP names | Gap — pooled; not published | — |
| Advisor Austin Chen = Manifund cofounder; Manifund got SFF $90k (2024) | Direct | Frame manifesto + SFF table |
| Post-program money: FLI, Control AI, BlueDot, Seismic, CAIS contracts | Direct | Frame site / EA Forum |
| Cohort 2: $10k stipend + housing/meals/flights for 10 weeks | Direct | framefellowship.com |
| FLI also runs a Digital Media Accelerator for AI-risk creators | Direct | aisafety.com/funding |
METR — funding status (the beast’s paycheck)
| Claim | Strength | Source |
|---|---|---|
| EIN 99-1219864, 501(c)(3), Covina CA; ~$13.6M revenue / ~$6.5M assets on latest 990-class summary | Direct | ProPublica, PlainCharity |
| Cause IQ grantmakers listed: Alignment Research Center $4,477,169 (spin-off), Vanguard Charitable $4,000,000, Founders Pledge $184,000 (+ more) | Direct (aggregator) | Cause IQ |
| Aug 14, 2026: ~$71M commitments in prior 6 months — named thank-you list without per-funder amounts (Audacious ~$17M is outside window; SFF << $71M) | PARTIAL — aggregate soft; cannot allocate | METR funding update; METR Aug 2026 funding-update dig |
| SFF Tallinn lines 2024–2025 (table above) | Direct | SFF |
| “Have not accepted funding from AI companies” / “do not accept donations made by or at the direction of their staff”; still take free tokens from labs | Direct (METR’s own rule) | METR About / funding update |
| Open Phil / Coefficient: eval RFPs explicitly build on METR task standard; Ajeya Cotra (ex Open Phil AI lead) now at METR; Paul Christiano (ARC) married to Cotra — footnote in OP RFP | Direct structural | Coefficient RFP footnotes |
| Named Open Phil / Coefficient grant page "$X to METR" | NO_HIT — OP→ARC $1.515M HIT; ARC→METR spin-off $4.48M separate; Coefficient says METR is not a Coefficient grantee (suggests to individuals) |
Anthropic equity ↔ same philanthropic stack
| Edge | Note |
|---|---|
| Tallinn led Anthropic Series A | Same person funding Lightcone / MIRI / METR via SFF |
| Karnofsky (Coefficient / Open Phil) ↔ Daniela Amodei; Karnofsky joined Anthropic | Donor infrastructure married into the lab |
| Co-founder 80% wealth pledge → expected recycle into EA/Coefficient/safety nonprofits | Forward-looking capital, not yet a 990 line |
Layer 1 — Program facts (compressed)
PDKU: Aella + Ronny (Lightcone); Grimes + Yudkowsky mentors; July 2026: 57 creators, 112M+ claimed views; stipend + prizes.
Frame: Akshyae Singh + Austin Chen; $10k stipend; AISTOF lead funder; CAIS/MATS amplifier track.
METR: Benton from Anthropic; Amodei essay names METR for permanent embed.
Name note: “Philanthropic” in Mark’s ask = the philanthropic EA class, not an org logo. Named evaluator = METR.
Layer 2 — Strong inference
- Doomerism is a funded product line (PDKU + Frame + FLI media accelerator), not weather.
- Same Tallinn/SFF trunk waters the sermon shop (Lightcone/MIRI) and the inspector (METR).
- METR’s “no lab money” rule does not break the conflict graph if lab equity holders / Series A angels fund the inspector through DAFs and SFF.
- Fits the DSC editorial: manufacture moral emergency → install preferred evaluator → compliance theater boxes out open-weight.
Layer 3 — Epistemic status (post digs)
| Claim | Status after digs |
|---|---|
| Tallinn/SFF couples Lightcone–MIRI–METR | Layer 1 / confirmed |
| PDKU rides same campus economy without its own EIN | Layer 1–2 (venue + payroll + funder press; not fiscal-sponsor listing) |
| Shared paymaster EA whales ↔ Singham-six / CodePink | NO_HIT — treat as parallel machines for public write |
| Packard funds both METR (thank-you) and Greenpeace/Sierra | HIT letter/climate aisle only — not Singham cash bridge |
| Vanguard/Fidelity on both METR and CodePink | PIPE-ONLY (same sponsor brand; advisees unnamed) |
| PauseAI/FLI × CodePink co-ops | NO_HIT (SKR adjacency = ALIGNMENT-ONLY) |
| FWW/FFTF ↔ EA-pause bridge | NO_HIT |
| Soft-ops vendors (CPA/PR/events) | NO_HIT |
| China compute narrative parallel | ALIGNMENT-ONLY |
| PauseAI × CodePink city calendars | NO_HIT |
| FLI LAWS + CAIS aistatement rosters | NO_HIT |
| Emerson/Yield/FOIA for Vanguard $4M | DEAD-END / PIPE-ONLY |
| Tarbell fellows × Singham media | NO_HIT (Guardian masthead coexistence = ALIGNMENT-ONLY) |
| Directed Amodei → PDKU/Frame content coordination | Still speculative |
| METR rubber-stamp under embed vs adversarial | Still speculative |
Dig log — 2026-09-14 evening (990 method restored)
Method (same ProPublica full-render path as the Wyss dig): NewDev Playwright + peacekeeper SOCKS 127.0.0.1:18888 → open ProPublica /full → capture signed pp-990-rendered.s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com HTML schedules. Direct download-filing PDF/XML still 403. Evidence: otto-mark-summaries/ea-doomer-metr-990s/.
| Filing | Key money facts |
|---|---|
| MIRI FY2024 Sch I | No org grantees named. Individuals: research grant $119,058 (1) + prizes $161,478 (704). No PDKU/Aella string (PDKU is 2026). |
| Lightcone FY2024 Sch I | Only org grant: Rose Garden LLC 88-4056757 $158,765. |
| Lightcone FY2025 990 | Rose Garden = Lighthaven ($4.28M exp / $2.10M rev). Fiscal sponsorship program named. Ronny Fernandez Campus Generalist $157,750. No PDKU string yet. |
| METR FY2024 Sch B | Contributor names RESTRICTED on public copy. Revenue contributions $13.60M. |
Remaining open items
- METR FY2025 Form 990 — recheck from ~2026-11-17. Will not unlock Sch B advisee names on public copy.
- DAF advisee residuals (optional / hard): Vanguard $4M→METR still unnamed after Emerson/Yield/FOIA/Audacious (DEAD-END); Schwab $263k / Fidelity $188k→Lightcone — CA AG cannot help post-Bonta; optional Jane Street reverse.
- Exact MIRI/SFF → PDKU dollar ledger — wait FY2026 filings / Commons disbursement (~Oct 2026–Jan 2027).
- AISTOF LP list — still unpublished (NO_HIT this pass).
Sources (money dig)
- https://survivalandflourishing.fund/recommendations
- https://plzdontkillus.com/index.html
- https://sfstandard.com/2026/04/22/sex-researcher-aella-hopes-make-ai-doom-go-mainstream/
- https://www.transformernews.ai/p/inside-ai-safety-influencer-bootcamp-plz-dont-kill-us
- https://www.lightconeinfrastructure.com/ (EIN on page)
- https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/organizations/920861538
- https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/organizations/991219864
- https://metr.org/about · https://evals.alignment.org/blog/2026-08-14-funding-update/
- https://www.framefellowship.com/ · https://manifund.org/ais-funder-bulletin
- https://aisafety.com/funding
- https://darioamodei.com/post/we-must-pace-the-frontier
- Editorial: DSC editorial
Dig log — 2026-09-14 night (EA × Singham cross-aisle)
Evidence tree: otto-mark-summaries/ea-singham-crossaisle/ · rollup 00-program/CROSS-AISLE-ROLLUP.md
NCRI corpus: otto-mark-summaries/ncri-corpus-full/ (71 PDFs) + CODEPINK-SINGHAM-HITS.md
Layer 3 table (cross-aisle results)
| Stone | Task | Verdict | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| SVCF → Lightcone $590k + MIRI $50k | HIT | DAF = SFF; donor = Tallinn — EA aisle, not Singham/FFM | |
| Players Philanthropy Fund both-aisle | NO_HIT | EA→PPF→Tarbell yes; YE2024 Sch I no Singham-six/letter | |
| Cause IQ +N grantmakers | NO_HIT () | Expanded LC/MIRI/METR = EA/DAF/ARC/BERI; 0 Arabella/Singham names | |
| Reverse EA whales → Singham funders | NO_HIT | GS DAF / JEF / Arc dominate Singham-six; Vanguard = pipe-only (MECA/AFGJ) | |
| Arabella / NVF / STF → EA | NO_HIT | Sch I + FFM: 0 EA orgs; Arabella is letter-$ recipient | |
| Personnel EA × Singham | NO_HIT | No shared Part VII; Singham↔PSL adjacency stays within aisle | |
| Vanguard $4M → METR | PIPE-ONLY | Conduit confirmed; advisee unnamed; no Singham | |
| AISTOF / Frame LPs | NO_HIT | Pool unpublished; Tallinn→Frame ≠ Tallinn∈AISTOF | |
| NCRI ground ↔ Singham | OSINT holds | GSPF/JEF/PF/PUF/Arc + SID4P; PSL cash still not proven |
Layer 3 read
Tallinn/SFF still couples Lightcone–MIRI–METR. NCRI still documents Singham-six + CodePink ground game. No confirmed shared paymaster between those two stacks. The SVCF “pipe” unmasked as SFF/Tallinn.
Dig log — 2026-09-14 late (exhaustive money dig)
Note: Exhaustive money dig closed.
Evidence tree: otto-mark-summaries/ea-money-dig-swarm2/
Layer 1 / Layer 3 verdict table (money dig)
| Topic | Verdict | One-liner |
|---|---|---|
| PPF YE2021–23 Sch I | NO_HIT | Same as YE2024 — no Singham-six / core letter brands |
| Vanguard $4M → METR | PIPE-ONLY | Conduit reconfirmed; advisee unnamed; Tallinn’s Vanguard $787k = AISTOF, not this $4M |
| NVF project-name opacity | NO_HIT | No EA x-risk labels under NVF/STF/Hopewell; AJL adjacent ≠ EA |
| PDKU host / EIN | PARTIAL | No standalone EIN; Lightcone is fiscal sponsor org-level but PDKU not named on Habryka/Part III list — downgrade prior Lightcone-host claim |
| Every.org PDKU designation | OPEN | Vercel wall this pass; browser/peacekeeper still needed |
| Rose Garden / Lighthaven | HIT | Lightcone Rose Garden LLC 88-4056757 = Lighthaven; Habryka manager; Slimrock (Tallinn) $20M mortgage; PDKU fellows rent-free on campus |
| METR ~$71M commitments | PARTIAL | Soft / opaque aggregate; Audacious ~$17M outside window; cannot itemize named thank-yous |
| Coefficient/OP/GV → METR | HIT / NO_HIT | OP→ARC $1.515M HIT; named OP/Coefficient/GV→METR NO_HIT; ARC spin-off $4.48M separate |
| Free lab tokens | HIT / PIPE | METR discloses significant free tokens; per-lab $ PIPE; ~$600k unnamed free-credit crumb (theft disclosure) |
| Tallinn / SFF trunk | HIT | Full SFF table ready; Series A lead documented; stake % speculative; matching ‡ ≠ cash |
| Karnofsky / 80% pledge | PARTIAL | Role timeline + OP→ARC documented; cofounder 80% pledge names no recipients — recycle = speculative |
| Lightcone Commons / PDKU 2027 | HIT | Commons = Lightcone EIN 92-0861538; Tallinn $10M conditional + Moskovitz ~$5M; PDKU waiting on ~2026-10-23 recs |
| Schwab / DAFgiving360 $263k | PIPE-ONLY | Advisee unnamed; Tallinn ruled out (SVCF already attributed) |
| CFAR Prototype $77k | HIT | CFAR→Lightcone fiscal wind-down / restricted-fund reconciliation — not SFF mega / not PDKU |
| Beri Support Fund $600k→MIRI | HIT | Tallinn → BSF 82-4039090 → MIRI $600k; BSF = 509(a)(3) Type I SO of BERI; closed YE2021; not Open Phil; SFF = successor regrant vehicle |
| Fidelity $188k→Lightcone | PIPE-ONLY | Advisee unnamed; Tallinn ruled out |
| METR FY2025 990 | NOT_FILED | Recheck from 2026-11-17 (extension cliff ~2026-11-15) |
Corrections to earlier brief language
- PDKU fiscal host: Do not treat “Lightcone is a fiscal sponsor” as proof PDKU rides EIN 92-0861538. Org-level fiscal sponsorship = HIT; PDKU named as sponsored project = NO_HIT. Best working model: unincorporated project + MIRI/SFF funders + Lighthaven venue + Ronny on Lightcone payroll.
- Beri Support Fund: Historical MIRI $600k is Tallinn via BSF, not Open Phil and not BERI’s separate ~$300k pipe. BSF terminated YE2021; SFF succeeded the Tallinn org-grant role.
- DAF pipes still unnamed: Vanguard→METR $4M, Schwab→LC $263k, Fidelity→LC $188k remain PIPE-ONLY (advisee blind on Schedule I).
- OP → METR: Still no named grant page; path is OP→ARC then ARC→METR spin-off dollars.
- Cross-aisle (stands): Still no confirmed shared paymaster EA whales ↔ Singham / CodePink / Arabella / foreign-influence letter brands. PPF historical Sch I = NO_HIT.
Still open after money dig
| Item | Status |
|---|
| Vanguard / Schwab / Fidelity advisees | CA AG Sch B / Emerson / Yield if paths open | | Exact MIRI/SFF $ → PDKU ledger split | Needs FY2026 filings / program P&L |
Dig log — 2026-09-14 night (cross-aisle residual smoke)
Lists: #574 parents · #577 chronicle
Evidence: ea-singham-crossaisle/10–14/ · 00-program/round3.md · rollup updated
| Dig | Task | Verdict | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| METR thank-you foundations → Singham/letter | NO_HIT Singham-six | Packard→Greenpeace/Sierra HIT (letter aisle ≠ Singham cash); Schmidt Family ≠ Schmidt Sciences (PARTIAL); Vanguard/Fidelity→CodePink PIPE-ONLY | |
| PauseAI / FLI / CAIS AF × CodePink ops | NO_HIT | Stop Killer Robots adjacency = ALIGNMENT-ONLY; CAIS Chip Security conflicts with CodePink China frame | |
| CA AG Sch B / Vanguard $4M advisee | PIPE-ONLY | Post-Bonta CA excludes Sch B; IRS Sch B RESTRICTED | |
| Tarbell / AI journalism venues | NO_HIT | EA→Tarbell CONFIRMED; Guardian Medea Benjamin + Tarbell fellow = masthead coexistence only | |
| Every.org PDKU designation | NO_HIT (executed) | SOCKS+Playwright: PDKU slugs 404; search empty; Lightcone Every.org EIN 92-0861538 confirmed (no PDKU project) |
Layer 3 update (after residual-smoke dig)
Still no confirmed shared paymaster EA whales ↔ Singham-six / CodePink. Residual “smoke” that survived:
- Packard funds METR (thank-you) and Greenpeace/Sierra (letter brands) — shared climate/advocacy foundation, not Singham stack.
- Vanguard/Fidelity DAF brands appear on both METR and CodePink — advisee-blind; not a bridge.
- Stop Killer Robots / “killer robots” rhetoric — issue-space adjacency only.
Call for editorial: coincidental / parallel ideological alignment remains the honest public write on crossover; Tallinn/SFF trunk remains the real within-EA coupling.
Dig log — 2026-09-14 night (cross-aisle next-tier)
Lists: #574 parents · #578 chronicle
Evidence: ea-singham-crossaisle/20–25/ · 00-program/round4.md · rollup updated
| Dig | Task | Verdict | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| FWW/FFTF ↔ EA-pause bridge | NO_HIT | FWW moratorium PDFs miss PauseAI/FLI/METR/CodePink; Schmidt Family→FWW ≠ Schmidt Sciences→METR | |
| Soft ops vendors | NO_HIT | Named CPA/contractors diverge; PayPal/Stripe/Every.org = generic; Scali = within-Singham only | |
| China compute narrative | ALIGNMENT-ONLY | Containment vs partner vs pause-treaty; no cash bridge | |
| City calendar crosswalk | NO_HIT | Sample metros; extends | |
| LAWS / aistatement rosters | NO_HIT | Wayback LAWS JS + CAIS 556-signatory dump; Singham needles 0 | |
| DAF advisee private paths | DEAD-END / PIPE-ONLY | Yield/Emerson/FOIA/Audacious do not name Vanguard→METR $4M advisee |
Layer 3 update (after next-tier dig)
Still no confirmed shared paymaster. Next-tier stones (bridges, soft ops, calendars, rosters, Emerson/Yield) do not unlock a cash or co-brand bridge. Residual watch: METR FY2025 990; optional Jane Street reverse for Vanguard $4M.
European climate philanthropy × EA (2026-09-14, complete)
Lists: parents #574 · chronicle #579
Evidence: ea-euroclimate-ea-cross/30–36/ · 00-program/round5-ROLLUP.md
| Dig | Task | Verdict | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oak → EA | NO_HIT | EAISF civic; ClimateWorks intermediary ≠ EA | |
| QCF → EA | NO_HIT | Named schedules + partner DB | |
| CIFF → EA | NO_HIT | Climate/health grants DB | |
| ClimateWorks intermediaries | NO_HIT | No EA regrant | |
| Packard / Pew deepen | PARTIAL / AMOUNT_GAP | Letter adjacency; METR thank-you not itemized | |
| Personnel / boards | NO_HIT | No dual officers | |
| KR / IKEA / Wellcome / Arcadia | NO_HIT | Primary lists empty; Wyss letter-aisle only |
Layer 3 update (after the Euro-climate dig)
Euro climate FFM tops do not name-grant the EA pause/eval stack on sources checked. Residual = Packard thank-you + letter brands (AMOUNT_GAP), not Oak/QCF/CIFF→METR. Soft China collusion via Euro→EA remains Layer 3 (no paper Euro→EA HIT). EA-Europe (Effektiv Spenden €128k→METR; Longview ~$220k→METR; FP→CAIS) is a separate aisle — do not mix into climate FFM.
Investigation round synthesis — 2026-09-14 (cross-aisle + Euro climate + Every.org)
Evidence trees: otto-mark-summaries/ea-doomer-metr-990s/ · ea-singham-crossaisle/ · ea-money-dig-swarm2/ · ncri-corpus-full/ · ea-euroclimate-ea-cross/
A. Within-EA money trunk (what locked)
| Edge | Amount / fact | Epistemic | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tallinn / SFF → Lightcone, MIRI, METR | Multi-year SFF recommendation table (incl. matching ‡ ceilings) | HIT | primary dig |
| SVCF → Lightcone $590k + MIRI $50k | DAF = SFF; donor = Tallinn | HIT | primary dig |
| Tallinn → Beri Support Fund 82-4039090 → MIRI $600k | Tallinn ledger via=BSF; BSF Type I SO of BERI; closed YE2021 |
HIT | primary dig |
| OP/GV → ARC (METR parent) | $1,515,000 (2022) | HIT | primary dig |
| ARC → METR spin-off | $4,477,169 (Cause IQ) | HIT | Cause IQ / |
| OP/Coefficient → METR named grant | — | NO_HIT | primary dig |
| Vanguard Charitable → METR | $4,000,000 | PIPE-ONLY (advisee unnamed; Sch B sealed) | primary dig |
| Schwab/DAFgiving360 → Lightcone | $263,100 | PIPE-ONLY (Tallinn ruled out) | primary dig |
| Fidelity → Lightcone | $188,119 FY2025 | PIPE-ONLY | primary dig |
| METR ~$71M commitments (Aug 2026) | Soft aggregate; Audacious ~$17M outside window | PARTIAL | primary dig |
| METR free lab tokens | Significant free tokens; ~$600k unnamed free-credit crumb | HIT / PIPE | primary dig |
| Lightcone Rose Garden LLC | EIN 88-4056757 = Lighthaven; Habryka manager; Slimrock $20M mortgage | HIT | primary dig |
| Lightcone Commons | Same EIN 92-0861538; Tallinn $10M conditional + Moskovitz ~$5M narrative; PDKU waiting ~2026-10-23 | HIT | primary dig |
| CFAR → Lightcone “Prototype” $77,448 | Fiscal wind-down / restricted-fund reconciliation — not SFF mega / not PDKU | HIT | primary dig |
| Karnofsky / Anthropic 80% pledge | Role timeline + OP→ARC documented; pledge names no recipients | PARTIAL | primary dig |
| Anthropic Series A | Tallinn led $124M (2021) — stake % speculative | HIT / speculative % | primary dig |
B. PDKU legal / host (corrected this round)
| Claim | Verdict | Proof |
|---|---|---|
| Standalone PDKU 501(c)(3) EIN | NO_HIT | ProPublica API total_results: 0 |
| Every.org PDKU project page | NO_HIT | SOCKS+Playwright: /plzdontkillus etc. 404; search empty ( execute) |
| Lightcone Every.org org page | HIT | EIN 92-0861538 on every.org/lightcone-infrastructure |
| PDKU on Habryka fiscal-sponsor list | NO_HIT | Manifund Lightcone writeup list omits PDKU |
| Lightcone = fiscal sponsor (org characteristic) | HIT | Cause IQ / 990 Part III |
| PDKU hosted under 92-0861538 as named project | PARTIAL only — downgraded | No sponsored-project listing + no donor-platform designation |
| Funders MIRI + SFF (press) | HIT (funders ≠ host EIN) | SF Standard; site |
| July 2026 cohort physical costs on Lighthaven | HIT | Rent-free fellows; Ronny Campus Generalist $157,750 |
C. Cross-aisle EA ↔ Singham / CodePink / foreign-influence (what failed)
| Stone | Verdict | Note |
|---|---|---|
| SVCF dual-use | False positive | Unmasked Tallinn/SFF |
| PPF YE2021–24 Sch I × Singham/letter | NO_HIT | primary dig |
| Cause IQ +N ∩ | NO_HIT | primary dig |
| EA whales → Singham-six reverse | NO_HIT | primary dig |
| Arabella/NVF → EA orgs | NO_HIT | primary dig |
| Personnel / board overlap | NO_HIT | primary dig |
| AISTOF dual-aisle LPs | NO_HIT | primary dig |
| NCRI CodePink ↔ Singham | OSINT holds (their aisle) | — does not plug into EA payroll |
| METR thank-you foundations → Singham-six | NO_HIT | primary dig |
| Packard → Greenpeace/Sierra | HIT letter brands only | Same Packard on METR About — climate aisle ≠ Singham |
| Schmidt Family → FWW/GP | PARTIAL | ≠ METR’s Schmidt Sciences entity |
| Vanguard/Fidelity → CodePink | PIPE-ONLY | Same DAF brands as EA; advisees unnamed |
| PauseAI/FLI/CAIS AF × CodePink ops | NO_HIT | SKR adjacency ALIGNMENT-ONLY |
| Tarbell journalism × Singham media | NO_HIT | Guardian coexistence ALIGNMENT-ONLY |
| CA AG unlock Vanguard advisee | PIPE-ONLY | post-Bonta Sch B excluded |
| FWW/FFTF ↔ EA-pause | NO_HIT | primary dig |
| Soft-ops vendors | NO_HIT | primary dig |
| China compute parallel | ALIGNMENT-ONLY | primary dig |
| City calendars PauseAI×CodePink | NO_HIT | primary dig |
| FLI LAWS + CAIS aistatement rosters | NO_HIT | primary dig |
| Emerson/Yield/FOIA Vanguard advisee | DEAD-END | primary dig |
| Oak/QCF/CIFF/ClimateWorks → EA | NO_HIT | Euro-climate dig – |
| Packard/Pew × METR/letter | PARTIAL / AMOUNT_GAP | letter HIT ≠ shared paymaster |
| Euro personnel dual officers | NO_HIT | primary dig |
| KR/IKEA/Wellcome/Arcadia → EA | NO_HIT | primary dig |
D. Editorial-ready call
- Within EA: Not coincidence. Tallinn/SFF (and older BSF) is a real fiscal trunk watering the sermon shop (Lightcone/MIRI/PDKU campus economy) and the inspector (METR), alongside Anthropic Series A equity.
- Across to Singham/CodePink / foreign-influence letter aisle: After fiscal + ops + media + residual + next-tier (FWW/FFTF, soft ops, calendars, rosters, Emerson/Yield) digs, coincidental / parallel ideological alignment is the honest public write. Shared foundation brands (Packard) and DAF sponsor brands (Vanguard) without advisee IDs are not a shared paymaster.
- Euro climate → EA: NO_HIT on Oak/QCF/CIFF/ClimateWorks/KR/IKEA/Wellcome/Arcadia/personnel. Soft China-via-Euro stays Layer 3. Do not treat Effektiv Spenden/Longview/FP as climate FFM.
- Do not overclaim: Lightcone “hosts PDKU” as a named fiscally sponsored project; OP “funds METR” as a named grant; Vanguard $4M “is Tallinn”; SVCF “is Singham-adjacent.”
E. Artifact index
| Tree | Contents |
|---|---|
ea-doomer-metr-990s/ |
MIRI/Lightcone/METR 990 HTML captures |
ea-singham-crossaisle/ |
Cross-aisle digs + rollup |
ea-money-dig-swarm2/ |
Exhaustive money dig (16 digs) |
ea-euroclimate-ea-cross/ |
Euro climate×EA digs + rollup |
ncri-corpus-full/ |
71 NCRI PDFs + CodePink/Singham hit index |
14-everyorg-pdku/raw/newdev-socks-playwright/ |
Screenshots + results.json (404s + Lightcone EIN) |